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[00:01] Yeah. Yeah. I wanted to watch this. >> The Fed meets this week and this one really matters. Inflation is sitting at 3%. [snorts] >> And Pal's about to start cutting rates. If this happens, it marks a major policy shift and one that affects every
[00:21] American with a mortgage, credit card, or investment account. So, in this video, we're going to walk through what's driving this decision and what the data actually says and what you can expect before the Fed makes it official. This is okay. Before they make it official though, let's go to poly
[00:37] market, which I do not condone this type of gambling or gambling at all. But, um it is very interesting to see how these predictions come through. So, uh, Fed decision in October, uh, we have, I mean, this this was based on 242 million, um, and then we have
[01:00] December, which is an 83% chance that we're going to have a 25% basis point decrease again. And then we have um, where was it for next year, 2026, there was an estimated two Fed decision October December Frederick by
[01:22] 2026. Where did it go? Fed decision. I just saw it. Okay. Well, it must have been off Koshi, but we have a I don't know fe January probably no change, but there was one for 2026 which said there was like a a more than 50% chance. I think it was
[01:43] like 60 that there's going to be another there's going to be two um cuts uh in 2026. Let's go back to here. There's a big couple months. >> Mhm. >> Yeah. There's a couple reasons as you guys probably all know right now the probabilities of you know all the all
[02:03] the folks all the economists they all believe that we're going to have a quarter point quarter point next two Fed meetings right I mean I think everybody maybe not everyone but a lot of people agree to that high probability it's in the 80s 90s% depending on the poll >> so that's a positive
[02:20] >> by the way I think the reason why I'm looking at poly market right now is because I think it's better than a poll when there's hundreds and hundreds hundreds of thousands or at at a minimum sometimes tens and [clears throat] hundreds of millions of dollars behind some of these um these bets.
[02:35] However, however, um you know, rising inflation and rising unemployment um those are two things I think heading into this next 60 days that are very very uncertain. You know, we've been talking about this for the last few months where the Fed is going to have to decide between the job
[02:55] market and inflation, right? The economy and the job market. And the truth is is that this is the turning point right here because both core and regular inflation came back at 3%. So, it is going up. It is above their target. And yet, if they're going to cut rates, that means the focus is going to be on the
[03:12] job market. >> So, I think the other thing that's kind of funny is that Pal now brought back the word transitory like this. This is actually kind of funny. Now, you guys may or may not know that he actually started talking about
[03:28] transit. >> By the way, transitory is confirmed to be one of the actual tools that the Fed has in their toolbox. >> Tory in Feb February of 2020. >> Yeah, >> that was the first time. And then in 2021, because I checked before the
[03:40] podcast, he said it six times in the in the year 2021, he kept using the word transitory and then be a kind of a joke, right? Everybody started joking around and they used the word temporary too a couple times. So, but he just now brought it out again, >> right? But this time he's talking about
[03:58] >> Yeah, I'm going to explain the joke to you. It It was funny because uh nothing was really that transitory. So, it looks like though they're going to be ending quantitative tightening and possibly, you know, doing the more more of the easing in the upcoming year. I want to show you a couple other things, though,
[04:14] because I was going through and here it is. [snorts] I have been thinking the exact same thing. If that mayor in New York wins, um I do strongly feel like we're going to have um more of the investment class people coming down to Florida. Some of the people who who were able to leave
[04:39] during the pandemic, some of those same people, I mean, specifically New York City. So, it's not going to be very like ex like as expansive as it was during the pandemics where it was swaths of people from numerous states in the northeast and in the in the west. But, uh you know, listen, despite what you
[04:56] think about politics, I think that there is some like the reality here is that there are people who are going to leave the people with money. >> There's this communist uprising and I don't see anything slowing it down in the Democrat party. Do you? >> No. this uh Mandani is the Democrat
[05:15] party. The minute he gets elected, assuming that happens and then becomes mayor, he's going to be the most prominent Democrat in America. Everything that he does, um all the inane ideas, all the leftist dril that has failed every time it's been tried. Uh but when he does that, that's going
[05:32] to be a realworld experiment that voters, not just in New York City, well some of them are never going to learn, but all throughout the country are going to see. That's what the Democratic party stands for. Uh I already know that if he gets elected, real estate in Palm Beach is going to go up even higher. Uh we're
[05:50] not necessarily, you know, asking for for folks to flood down here, but the reality is I think uh he's going to make Bill Delasio look like Ronald Reagan. [laughter] is this commun. >> So, I mean, I think I think that that's uh I've been thinking the exact same
[06:04] thing over the past couple weeks as we see the lead on uh Sauron Mdani, whatever his name is, kind of uh I think it's tightened a little bit with his his opponent, but it's still maintained. He's still maintaining a lead. [snorts] And then we have um along those same lines, this is uh relevant. I have a lot
[06:24] of Rhonda Santes today, but this is about the property taxes. So, if you combine a couple of these things together, I mean, I think this thing alone, right, breaking Governor Ronda Santz confirms Flidians will get to vote on abol uh officially abolishing property taxes statewide so they don't
[06:42] pay rent to the government. Let's listen. >> Bulldog on it and we're happy to do that. And that's obviously going to lead into uh doing the the ballot initiative for property tax for homestead um flidians. And basically I think what Bla1 is showing and this is just one
[06:59] part of it. There's going to be a lot more that comes out on local government. Um the reality is is you know Florida you know we have the number one economy in the country three years in a row. You know we've got a massive tax base of people who aren't Florida residents. So shouldn't we want them to pay and our
[07:15] people to have relief? I mean we have the ability to do it. So we're going to work we're going to work on all that and you you'll see that bulldog on it and we're happy. So, he confirms that we are going to be seeing that on the uh ballot box, which is I I wasn't too sure we we would even see
[07:34] that. And honestly, you'd think that that would be something that every single person in Florida float will vote on, but I have a feeling that we're going to get uh um a lot of I don't know, propaganda is the right word, but we're going to get a lot of news and headlines coming out on in in media on
[07:50] why this is like, you know, a terrible thing for Fidians to do to dissuade us from from voting on this in the in the direction of abolishing property taxes. So, we'll see how it goes. I try to keep an open mind because quite honestly like I don't know everything. So as I learn more things I make new decisions and um
[08:08] but yeah we'll see what goes on for that. Last thing here I have here is the um just a Monday market update from my brokerage um which is a little bit surprising. I saw sales up in Tampa Bay by 17% and this was uh this is a monthly thing. So uh this is year-over-year actually. Let's take a look. This is
[08:29] Tampa, St. Pete. This is Sarasota, Jacksonville, Orlando. Okay, so this is year-over-year actually. Uh, so that's a little a little surprising. I I would have thought that this year was pretty similar to last year, actually. Oh man, the amount of solds have gone up 17%, sale price has decreased by 2%, which I
[08:49] would have thought would be more given that it's on average four to, I don't know, 10% across the board here. uh price decreases, pendings gone up. So that makes sense because the solds, new listings because of the sold. Okay, so activives have gone up quite a bit as well. Months of
[09:05] supply have gone up. So overall, uh stronger for buyers.
